The 2016 world trade data points out that in 2016, the global economy shows signs of stabilization, the confidence of financial market picks up, the price of bulk commodities rebounds, the currencies of most major economies appreciate slightly against the US dollar, but the real economy is still fragile, the market demand is still sluggish, the effectiveness of macro policies is weakened, and the situation of low growth and high risk of the world economy cannot be fundamentally improved.
The recovery momentum of developed economies is slowing down, and the U.S. economy is better than other developed countries, but indicators such as enterprise investment, export, manufacturing purchasing manager index and so on are not performing well in the first quarter, GDP is only growing by 0.5% on a quarter on quarter basis, which shows that the economic growth momentum is still not strong; the debt ratio of the euro area government has started to decline, and the risk of debt crisis is reduced, but there are problems such as refugee flow, brexit referendum and so on Increase the uncertainty of European economy; the effect of Japan's economic policy is declining, and the driving force of economic growth is further weakened. The overall rebound of emerging economies is weak, the industrial output value of Brazil, Russia and other countries is shrinking, and the growth prospects are not optimistic.
The international monetary fund expects the world economy to grow by 3.2% in 2016, up from 0.1% in 2015, continuing the weak recovery pattern. Developed countries grew 1.9%, the same as 2015. According to the world trade data in 2016, the growth of emerging economies and developing countries was 4.1%, higher than 0.1 percentage point in 2015.