The Brazilian Wheat Flour Processors Association issued a report that
Brazil imports 2015 wheat are expected to be reduced to 5 million tons, which is 13.5% lower than the previous year's level.
In the first eight months of this year, Brazil's wheat imports were 3.3 million tons, decreased by 20% compared to the same period of last year, due to the decline in domestic wheat consumption,the expected increase in wheat production, and the fall in the import price of wheat due to the fall in the real exchange rate.
Abitrigo's import forecast is based on the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's current 2015 wheat production forecast of 7.1 million tons (an increase of 18% over the previous year), but the Ministry of Agriculture's production forecast data does not take into account the recent southern Parana and Rio Grande do Sul' s weather problems. Recently rains and frosts have occurred in southern Brazil.
2015 was another tough year for Brazilian wheat growers. Heavy rains occurred in the state of Parana in July, and heavy rains occurred in Rio Grande do Sul in August and September, causing damage to the wheat crop. A few weeks ago, the southern Rio Grande region of the wheat producing area experienced another serious frost, causing further damage to the wheat crop.
At the same time, the Brazilian flour processing industry has been severely affected by the sharp depreciation of the Brazilian real in the past year, and the Brazilian real exchange rate has dropped down faster last month. The exchange rate of the Brazilian real to the US dollar has fallen by 40%, making imports more expensive, but also causing domestic prices to rise.
Historically, Brazil is the main export market for Argentine wheat, but Argentina's export intervention policy has forced Brazil to source supplies from other regions in recent years.
In the first eight months of 2015, Brazil imported 2.7 million tons of wheat from Argentina and 295,339 tons of wheat from the United States.
