Strong exchange rate volatility, including about 15% appreciation of the dollar against other currencies since 2014, further complicates the picture.
The collapse of global oil prices in 2014 (down 47% from 15 July 2014 to 31 December 2014), weakness in other commodity categories and falling demand for imports from exporting countries have increased real incomes and imports from importing countries. Will the balance of world trade be more positive or negative? The answer remained unclear at the end of the second quarter of 2015. Compared with the year-ago numbers, grew 3.5% in the first quarter of 2015 trade, means that this year's trade growth will be slightly higher than in 2014 (though still below average), but in the second half of the year outlook overshadowed by several risk factors, such as Greece's sovereign debt crisis, the emerging economies of economic growth is slowing, dollar interest rates are likely to rise.
In the world trade statistics 2014
, the 2.5% growth rate of global trade value
refers to the average growth rate of import volume and export volume, that is, the growth rate of inter-country trade adjusted for exchange rate and inflation. The pace of trade growth last year turned out to be much slower than analysts had predicted at the start of the year.
The sharp fall in commodity prices since July 2014 was not foreseen and was not included in earlier economic forecasts. The fall in oil prices is mainly due to a surge in north American production, as well as falling demand from emerging markets.
In 2014, most economic forecasters predicted that us GDP would be above trend and Eurozone GDP would be close to trend. Both forecasts predicted an increase in trade, but did not materialise. The mixed quarterly GDP results have produced only an increase in America's average trade this year, whereas the euro area's performance has been mediocre.